2009 The Year Ahead for Indian IT

With sinking profits, eroding margins, cost-cuttings and an acquisition bid gone awry, 2008 was a year with more jeers than cheers for the country's over $50 billion IT sector, which has seen nearly a decade of uninterrupted boom.

However, as 2008 draws to a close, the sector is bracing up for a tough time ahead as the scars of global recession are showing up on the country's sunrise sector.

The sector, which has been charting a growth of over 30 per cent, had to settle for a growth rate of 20 per cent, as the global slowdown plunged the industry into unpredictable times.

In the year littered with economic disasters, the failed attempt of country's fourth largest software exporter Satyam Computer to botch up two family-promoted firms for $1.6 billion not only resulted in loss of face but also hit the reputation nurtured by the Indian IT sector over the years.

Faced with shareholder's revolt and heavy criticism over corporate governance issues, Satyam withdrew the offer within hours of making the proposal.

But within a space of 24 hours, the scrip lost over 30 per cent in India and was down 55 per cent in New York Stock Exchange trade.As a fallout, the Board size also shrank with four independent Directors resigning from the 10-Directors strong Board of the company in the wake of the fiasco.

The Satyam saga is likely to continue next year as well with the Board scheduled to meet on January 10.If Satyam made it to the headlines for a failed deal, it was HCL Technologies, the country's fifth largest software exporter next to Satyam that made the country proud by inking the largest takeover deal in the software space overseas.

HCL piped rival country's second largest IT giant Infosys to bag UK-based SAP consulting firm Axon for $658 million. While Infosys had made 600 pence per share offer for Axon, HCL made a counter bid of 650 pence a share to acquire the UK-based firm.

The year was also some significant M&As on the IT front, such as the $13.9-billion acquisition of Electronic Data Services by HP. Back home, Wipro acquired Citi Technology Services, Citigroup's IT arm in India, in an all-cash $127 million deal.

Earlier, TCS had bought out Citi's captive BPO arm Citigroup Global Services for about $505 million, which reiterates the strength of the Indian IT story. Another reason that will give the software services sector a reason to rejoice is the IT Amendment Bill.

The Lok Sabha passed the Information Technology (Amendment) Bill 2006 this month, which gives the government the power to tackle data theft. The bill might act as a shot in the arm for the BPO firms for whom data security is of utmost importance.

The Bill has provisions to deal with new forms of cyber crimes like publicising sexually explicit material in electronic form, video voyeurism and breach of confidentiality, leakage of data by intermediary and e-commerce frauds, among others.The US is the world's largest technology market and accounts for between 50 per cent and 60 per cent of the revenues of the top Indian firms. Since September, however, the economic situation in the US and the rest of the world has worsened.

Country's software lobby group Nasscom had estimated that India's software and back-office services industry would grow by 21-24 per cent in the 12 months to March, but its president Som Mittal said recently that this number could be revised downward.

With no signs of an early revival, all the IT biggies such as TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Satyam have revised their revenue guidance downwards.The currency volatility has also compounded the woes of the Indian IT sector.

If a rising rupee in the last fiscal had dented export earnings, the steady rise of the US dollar against the rupee, British pound and Euro during the second quarter (July-September) impacted revenue realisation in dollar terms since 30 per cent of the billing is done in these currencies.The sector also experienced slowdown in hiring.

Already, under pressure to cut cost, most of the IT biggies had to freeze their hiring in the year. Moreover, the joining dates of the new recruits were also postponed, ringing the alarm bells in the job market. The top five IT companies posted a 36 per cent decline in their rate of manpower addition in the last quarter.

As for hiring by BPOs -- for long looked upon as poor the cousins of information technology companies -- also faced the heat.

However, BPOs remained a bit sanguine, as Nasscom's figures indicate that the BPO sector recorded revenue growth of 31.6 per cent whereas IT companies grew at 28 per cent.In 2009, as the new administration led by Barack Obama takes a look at the outsourcing story vis-a-vis India, it is the efficiency and resilience of the IT sector which can help it sail through the troubled waters.